3 Ways the Past can Provide Insights into the Present
There’s more to history than just facts and dates. Reading about the past can give us a better understanding of what is happening today.
The difference between those who understand history and those who don’t is like an experienced outdoorsman and a greenhorn in a forest. The greenhorn walks along unaware of his surroundings, thinking, “Nothing here but trees and grass,” while the outdoorsman sees what lurks ahead. He says, “Look, there’s a mountain lion in that tall grass.” History buffs sometime see how situations can turn out, and they can offer ideas on what might work and what won’t in current dilemmas based on similar situations in the past.
Understand Change
History teaches us that society is not stagnant. Studying history teaches us to question how and why things change, who drives those changes, and whose interests are served by the change. History teaches that human actions have consequences. Looking at past events teaches us to ask probing questions and challenge preconceived assumptions. Studying how things have changed over time helps us to understand our world.
Human trends are cyclical. When we read about history, we see that there are recurring cycles and history has a tendency to repeat itself. The past teaches us about the present because history helps us explain problems in the past. It helps us to recognize pre-incident indicators preceding major events, which gives us a crucial perspective for understanding and solving problems of today.
Get Ideas to Solve Current Dilemmas
When we read history, we find lessons that provide guideposts for many challenges we face today. Here are a few examples.
· Military: Members of the military can apply tactics from the past to a current situation. For example, a small infantry unit facing a numerically superior force might choose to use a reverse slope defense because the tactic worked in the past in similar situations.
· Law Enforcement: Seeing today’s hostility, disrespect, and lack of public support for law enforcement is reminiscent of the late 1960s and early 1970s. The same events and conditions that led to crime epidemics back then are happening now. Police officers today can learn from those past events. For example, police should know that small things can turn into big things (the ’65 Watts riots started with a simple DUI stop). Conduct vehicle searches on your own cars. When you return to your vehicle (duty or personal), check for sabotage (lug nuts, tires, brake lines, explosives). Check your six. Know counter-ambush tactics. Practice community policing–this helped end the anti-cop movements of the 70s. This involves developing strategies to address citizens’ concerns, know that random patrols are less important than developing relationships, and take part in positive community interaction.
· Economics: If we are going to avoid a recession, we need to understand what led to past recessions. If we are interested in the socioeconomic impact of migration, we should measure the consequences of the arrival of previous mass migrations.
· Industry: Companies can learn from the million-dollar blunders of other companies. For example, in 2008 Pepsi launched a new logo design from the Arnell Group. The new version rotated the circular icon and attempted to turn the white wavy stripe into a smile. The new logo failed and sales dropped, costing the company over a million dollars. Lesson: beta test a new logo before going live. Companies facing mergers can learn from past mergers by other companies. Companies launching a product line into a new market can learn from the successes and failures of other companies in that new market.
Recognize the Warning Signs
Studying the demise of historic civilizations can give us insight into how much risk we face today. Great civilizations are not murdered. Instead, they take their own lives. The Roman Empire, for example, was the victim of government corruption and political instability. The people of ancient Rome let their democracy die by not protecting their political institutions and looking away as their leaders engaged in corrosive behaviors. In other examples, a corrupt and elite ruling class led to the French Revolution, the Russian Revolution, and the Iranian Revolution.
There are common patterns in these events, patterns that we see today. Here are just a few examples:
· Weaponize Fear: All authoritarian regimes use fear. They often invoke an internal enemy. In Stalin’s Soviet Union, anyone who tried to exercise free speech and criticize the government was labeled “enemies of the people.” In Germany in the 1930s, the National Socialists called those who supported the Weimar democracy “November Criminals.” Each of these regimes used a crisis as a pretense to take over the media, imprison dissenters, and build a secret police.
· Control the Media: All authoritarian regimes have controlled the press, to include Italy in the 1920s, Germany in the 30s and 40s, East Germany in the 50s, Czechoslovakia in the 60s, and China today. Under these regimes, journalists must deliver the government’s messages or they will be shut down.
· Disarm the Citizens: Dictators cannot survive long without disarming the people. In 1911, Turkey disarmed its citizens and 1.5 million Armenians were killed soon after. In 1929, Russia collected the guns from its citizens, and then 20 million Russians were murdered. In 1938, Nazi Germany disarmed its citizens, which was followed by the genocide of six million Jews. In 1956, Pol Pot disarmed the citizens of Cambodia, and soon after, one million “intellectuals” were killed. The list goes on. Every dictator that has taken guns away has used them against the population.
Read history and look at how things have changed over time, and you will better understand the world we live in today. Look for the pre-incident indicators preceding major events. You may find ideas that help with current dilemmas. Recognize the warning signs of history - if we don’t heed the warning signs, history will repeat itself.